Back working with the ONS’s UK population projections for the first time in a little while today, plotting the latest set of projections released earlier this year.
The ONS’s projections have fluctuated significantly over the past few years and the key uncertainty is clearly migration, for which long-term expectations have been revised upward again, though expectations for future fertility and life expectancy improvements have meanwhile been revised downward.
The HE sector has long watched the projection of the 18 year old population as a measure of whether good times or bad times are on the way, though of course no number of 18 year olds will solve all the sector’s current ailments.
The good news is that the 2030 peak has been revised back upwards, though still sits lower than where projections prior to the pandemic estimated it to land.
The bad news is that once we’re through the good, the bad now looks worse. The projected steady state 18 year old population from the early-2040s onwards is now expected to be around 4.5% lower than previously thought. The early-2040s is of course when we start to talk about 18 year olds who have yet to be born, so this is almost entirely a product of lower expected births.
It’s looking increasingly likely that the late-2020s and early-2030s will be a demographic flash in the pan for UK universities, followed by a fall to a level not too far off the bottom of the previous dip in 2020.
